concept of time and forecasting techniques of natural hazards

although the history of hazard recognition goes back to years ago, and even some techniques were invented to predict it, hazard studies are new in the current knowledge. the concept of hazard and risk will be defined when the events show two special properties: first, they happen unexpectedly, and second, their occurrence cause harm to us. the general state of the earth should be considered among the warm periods and the cold periods are nothing beyond a cryogenic shock, i.e. over the past 750,000 years of earth's history, a total of 630,000 years and 120,000 years were warm and cold periods respectively. one of the ways of predicting events is using statistical techniques. in these techniques special default have been made, according to which the types and patterns of analysis will be different. by proving this assumption, studying the relation of one or several features of agent variable, the pattern of hazardous event can be analyzed. this article which comes from university of isfahan deals with an event in quaternary called ice choir glacial in one of the mountain valleys tian shan to assess the sides, using turning point test statistical method. results show that the way in which these events happen, make them to be considered as hazards or risks. the concept of frequency- magnitude in geomorphology are kind of conditional forecasts which may help us to manage the probability of exposure to such events.